Pacific Securities: 5G value is predicted to counter-cyclical infrastructure + IoT will accelerate
Pacific Securities Research’s latest opinion on February 25: Politburo meeting focuses on 5G value, counter-cyclical infrastructure + IoT will accelerate Source: Pacific Securities Research Directory ◆ Major Daily Finances ◆ Latest Industry Views ◆ Listed Companies Express Daily Major Finances (1) Budget: The People’s Bank of China announced on the 24th that the current position of the liquidity of the banking system is at a reasonable and sufficient level, and no reverse repurchase operation will be carried out today.
Due to the expiration of 300 billion reverse repurchases, the open market on that day achieved a net withdrawal of 300 billion.
(2) Budget: Nearly a thousand enterprises have obtained special re-loans, and a stable monetary policy will be more flexible and appropriate.
Since the outbreak, the People’s Bank of China has implemented a series of monetary policy measures in accordance with the principle of being flexible and appropriate in its prudent monetary policy, intensifying counter-cyclical adjustments.
In the next step, we will continue to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity, make good use of structural monetary policy tools, and give full play to the role of policy finance.
(3) Ministry of Finance: To further bring into play the effectiveness of quantitative import policies and adapt to the requirements of the laws of the market economy.
Recently, the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice on canceling the tax-free quota management of the “13th Five-Year Plan” on the import of seed sources.
(4) Ministry of Finance: As of February 23, a total of 99.5 billion yuan in epidemic prevention and control funds have been arranged by the government, of which a total of 255 by the central government.
200 million yuan.
(5) Recently, the 33rd Chairman’s Meeting of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference studied issues related to merging the third session of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, in order to implement the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on coordinating and promoting the new crown pneumoniaThe overall deployment of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development work, organized a CPPCC and a large number of CPPCC members to actively participate in the fight against epidemic prevention and control. It is recommended that the third session of the thirteenth session of the CPPCC originally planned to be held on March 3 is preliminary.Appropriate budget, predetermined time.
(6) On February 24th, the People’s Bank of China officially issued the Financial Industry Standards for Financial Distributed Ledger Technical Security Standards (JR / T 0184-2020), which stipulated the security system for financial decentralized ledger technology.
(7) On February 24th, the 5G concept and the Huawei concept set off a wave, with turnover in both cities exceeding 1.
The final close, the Shanghai stock index fell 0.
28% at 3031.
23 points; Shencheng Index rose 1.
23% at 11,772.
38 points; GEM Index rose 1.
68% to 2263.
(8) On February 24, Northbound funds significantly replaced 87.
05 trillion, the largest net penetration in the past month.
Latest industry perspectives[Macro]Interest rate forecasting model 2.
US and Eurozone 0: Based on global economic indicators (1) From the perspective of global markets, the relative equity market of bonds more reflects economic fundamentals. The basic idea of our interest rate prediction model is to use global economic indicators to make forward-looking predictions of interest rate changes.
(2) Judging the trend of interest rates in the US and the euro area.
The US interest rate indicator uses US 10-year Treasury bonds, calculates the fitting degree of each indicator of the global economic indicators with the US 10-year Treasury bonds at different lags, and selects indicators with a higher degree of fit and gives different weights.
Then, according to the trend of each indicator, the exchange rate changes in the next 1-2 quarters will be judged.
The euro area chose the European 10-year public debt in the same way.
(3) According to estimates, from February to May 2020, the probability of a decline in US interest rates is small, and the probability of decline is 49.
90% and 35.
From February to May 2020, the relative error in the probability of a decline in interest rates in the euro area was 52, respectively.
86% and 51.
56%. (4) Using the interest rate forecasting model for backtesting, the results show that the model has better ability to predict the trend of US debt and European debt. According to the model, the long-short strategy is adopted, and the strategic net value obviously replaces the basic indicators.
Risk reminder: Exogenous shock, policy intensity is not as expected[Communication]5G investment will be restored first, and 5G + Industrial Internet will accelerate the implementation of investment points: (1) Take advantage of the externality of 5G investment, and 5G investment will be restored first.
We are at 2.
When the thousands of stocks fell on the 3rd, it reminded the market that there was a good opportunity for 5G to increase positions.
After about 3 weeks, remote office, satellite Internet, optical module and other sectors have achieved breakthrough growth.
It fully proves that the anti-cycle value of 5G is recognized by the market.
Reviewing the development of the epidemic in 2003, operators also increased their CAPEX investment in the later period of the epidemic. This time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology explicitly asked operators to accelerate 5G construction steps and play a “stable investment role.” We judge that the operator’s CAPEX expenditure will increase significantlyMore than 8%, the prosperity of the entire 5G industry chain will continue.
(2) Tendering for operators is about to start, and the infrastructure industry chain benefits first, especially recommending wireless side investment opportunities.
Operators of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will formulate and optimize 5G network construction plans to accelerate the pace of 5G, especially independent networking.
We judge that the operator’s investment and bidding will start as scheduled without delay due to the epidemic, and 5G base station construction will clearly benefit, including base stations, antennas, filters and optical module companies.
(3) Typical application scenarios have been catalyzed, and the 5G + Industrial Internet is accelerating.
Communication has played an important role in epidemic prevention and control, telecommuting, remote education, and telemedicine. The typical application scenario of 5G “blessed by disaster” has been cultivated and catalyzed.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requested to further deepen the integration and development of 5G with vertical industries such as industry, medical care, education, and Internet of Vehicles.
We judge that the catalyzed scenario of “5G + Industrial Internet” will accelerate the expansion, focusing on industrial Internet platform companies, module companies and companies with typical IoT applications (smart meters, connected cars, smart factories).
Industry highlights: (1) Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Fast 5G, especially SA network construction, highlights investment stability and leading role.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology accelerates the development of 5G and does a good job of video and teleconferences in the information and communications industry to resume work and resume production.
It is necessary to accelerate the pace of 5G business and promote the breakthrough development of the information and communication industry.
The local communications administrations must help enterprises solve practical problems in 5G construction, such as protection and entry, and continue to promote 5G development. Second, they must speed up the construction progress: basic telecommunications companies must formulate and optimize 5G network construction plans and accelerate 5G, especially independent groups.The pace of network construction and the effective role of 5G construction in “stabilizing investment” and driving the development of the industrial chain; Third, promoting integrated development: We need to study and issue 5G cross-industry application guidance policies and integration standards, and further deepen 5G and industrial, medical, and educationDevelopment of vertical industries such as Internet of Vehicles.
Accelerate the integration application of “5G + Industrial Internet”, and promote the digital, network, and intelligent transformation of traditional industries.
Fourth, it is necessary to enrich the application scenarios: basic telecommunication enterprises accelerate the promotion of new services, new models, and new applications.
Seize the potential of 5G’s business development in online education, online medical care, remote office, etc.
(2) ZTE builds a “distributed, carrier-grade, intelligent” 5G telecommunications cloud network to help operators win 5G opportunities.
ZTE proposes to build a “distributed, telecommunication-grade, intelligent” 5G telecommunication cloud network.
“Three-tier distributed” 5G telecommunications cloud, inspiring edge computing.
Network elements with different functions are deployed in different levels of data centers according to the requirements of the scenario, so the network becomes more flexible.
“Carrier-grade” networking architecture provides hybrid Overlay, hardware Overlay, and software Overlay networking solutions, deploying various software and hardware devices as needed to provide the best solution.
“Intelligent” 5G telecommunication cloud network, based on the IBN essential network, is a simple, intelligent, and fast operation and maintenance solution, which reduces network operation and maintenance costs.
(3) Global 5G smartphone expansion will reach 1 in 2020.
In 2020, the global 5G smart phone implantation volume will reach 1.
China, the United States, South Korea, Japan and Germany will account for 90% of global 5G smartphone sales in 2020.
The COVID-19 epidemic is restricting smartphone production in Asia and disrupting the supply chain; the 5G smartphone market in the first half of 2020 will be weaker than expected, and the 5G smartphone market is expected to rebound strongly in the second half of the year.
Recommended this week: 5G resumption of construction and the direction of the Industrial Internet, the direction of the Internet of Things is recommended. Sunsea Intelligent, Guanghetong, Mobile Communications, Mobile Communications, Dongtu Technology, Dongfang Guoxin (Computer Coverage); IDC Direction: Halo New Network,Antenna RF: Shenglu Communication.
Long-term recommendation: 5G main equipment and infrastructure: ZTE Corporation, China Tower; Antenna: Shenglu Tongyu; Filter: Dafu Technology; Optical Module: Zhongji Xuchuang, Guangxun Technology, Cambridge Technology, Bochuang Technology; Benefit Traffic Explosion: Halo New Network, Monternet Group, No. 100 Holdings, Wangsu Technology, Jiachuang Video.
Risk reminders: (1) systemic risks caused by the unexpected decline of the market; (2) uncertainty risks that are recommended for the promotion of related matters of the company.
[Communication]Politburo meeting highlights the value of 5G, counter-cyclical infrastructure + Internet of Things will accelerate the event: The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held on February 21 to promote 5G networks and accelerate the development of the Industrial Internet.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology accelerated the development of 5G around February 22nd, and did a good job of the video and telephone conference on the resumption and production of the information and communications industry.
(1) The Politburo meeting and the policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are strongly promoted, and 5G is called a new height.
Two recent events have once again raised part of 5G construction.The first is the meeting held by the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on February 21.
The meeting is held to actively expand effective demand, promote consumer replenishment and potential release, give play to the key role of effective investment, increase the start of new investment projects, and accelerate the progress of projects under construction.
Promote the accelerated development of 5G networks and industrial Internet.
Secondly, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology accelerated the development of 5G around February 22, and did a good job of the teleconference on the resumption and production of the information and communication industry.
The meeting requested that basic telecommunication companies should assess the impact of the epidemic in a timely manner, formulate and optimize 5G network construction plans, accelerate the pace of 5G, especially independent networking, and effectively bring 5G construction to a “stable investment” and drive the positive role of the development of the industrial chain.
First, comparing the strength of policies before and after, the highest guidance for 5G construction was the 2019 Central Economic Work Conference. The Prime Minister listed 5G as a priority task for economic work in 2019 and proposed to accelerate the pace of 5G business.
This is a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the People’s Republic of China, which has a higher level and highlights the key role of 5G in driving investment.
In fact, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology immediately affected the central government’s instructions to accelerate the development of 5G, reflecting that behind the development of 5G is the will of the country to promote the policy. The policy is gradually replaced from the central government to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and then to the operators.
Therefore, the judgment of the development speed of 5G should not only consider the investment and construction needs of operators, but should also understand the urgency of 5G development from a higher perspective and from the huge driving force for national economic development.
(2) 5G investment will definitely increase under the epidemic situation, and it is expected to exceed expectations in 2020.
Looking back at history, when China’s economic development is likely to slow down in the face of external interference, investment in communications construction will become an economic adjustment work.
For example, during the SARS period in 2003, the actual capital expenditure of the operator increased by 23% compared with the plan at the beginning of the year. During the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the actual capital expenditure of the operator increased by 25% compared with the plan at the beginning of the year.
We expect that the overall capital expenditure of operators in 2020 may exceed the expected growth, and the expected growth is more than 8%.
This time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly stated that “accelerating the pace 淡水桑拿网 of 5G, especially independent network construction, and effectively giving play to the positive role of 5G construction in” stabilizing investment “and driving the development of the industrial chain” is precisely the furious effect of 5G on the economy and industry.
Although the work was resumed in early 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic, the subsequent additional investment and acceleration of work can still achieve the goal of promoting the rapid decline of 5G, which does not need to be pessimistic for the performance of the communication industry chain companies.
(3) 5G will not slow down under the pressure of the United States, and the “internal circulation” power is redundant. The rise of Huawei’s industrial chain is irresistible.
The U.S. Department of Commerce included Huawei and its 68 affiliates in the entity list on May 15, 2019, followed by four consecutive 上海夜网论坛 releases on May 20, August 19, and November 18, and February 13, 2020 for a period of fourA 90-day “temporary general license” allows Huawei and its subsidiaries to engage in “specific activities.”
We believe that the US sanctions on Huawei tend to restrict China’s overtaking in the field of technology.
However, the world’s largest communications market is in China. Are the world’s top four major equipment manufacturers in China? They have strong industrial chain support. Core device breakthroughs and domestic substitution are accelerating. China only has the “inner loop” strength to develop 5G.
The US sanctions conference will hurt its own industry chain and cannot stop China’s 5G process.
ZTE, Huawei and its industry chain companies are expected to gain more market share in 5G construction.
(4) Typical application scenarios are catalyzed, and the 5G + Industrial Internet is accelerating.
Communication has played an important role in epidemic prevention and control, remote office, remote education, and telemedicine. The typical application scenario of 5G is “blessed by misfortune”, short-term demand erupts, long-term user habits change, and product penetration will gradually increase.
The cloud communications market has just started in China, and giants such as Tencent and Ali are pinpointing the track, and the market is cultivating huge development opportunities.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requested to further deepen the integration and development of 5G with vertical industries such as industry, medical care, education, and Internet of Vehicles.
Industrial scenarios are a major feature that distinguishes 5G from 4G. 5G, edge computing, big data, ultra-high-definition video, AR / VR and other advanced technologies are committed to integration and development in the industrial field.
We judge that the catalyzed scenario of “5G + Industrial Internet” will accelerate expansion.
Investment suggestion: Continue to be optimistic about the role of communication in counter-cyclical adjustments, policies catalyze the acceleration of 5G, and the wireless side remains the focus of operator construction.
Key recommendation: 5G leader: ZTE; infrastructure scarce standard: China Tower; elastic antennas with flexible resonance: Shenglu Communications, Dafu Technology, Tongyu Communications; Huawei industry chain: Ziguang State Micro, Gongjin shares, etc .; Wuhan resumed production capacityRecovery: Guangxun Technology, Huagong Technology; companies with industrial Internet platforms, modules and typical IoT applications (smart meters, connected cars, smart factories): Sunsea Intelligent, High-tech, Guanghetong, move to communication, moveFar communication.
Risk warning: 5G construction is less than expected; the intensified epidemic affects the construction process.
Listed company express[Pharmaceutical]Aier Ophthalmology: Liucheng Hospital successively opened consultations or emergency department, and performance is expected to recover quickly. (1) Liucheng Hospital successively opened consultations or emergency department, which promoted rapid recovery and steady growth.
After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, all the hospitals of the group have been completely closed from February 1st to February 9th (except for emergency and online appointments), which has a certain impact on the company’s short-term performance. With effective control of the epidemic, eye hospitals in various regions have resumed workAccording to the collection and statistics of the latest operating conditions of hospitals in various places, we estimate that, as of February 23, nearly 100 hospitals in the mainland of Aloi have opened consultations; nearly 130 hospitals can launch emergency projects.A total of nearly 230, accounting for 62% of the total number of hospitals.
Of the hospitals with full consultations, about half of all the hospitals are expected to undergo an orderly transformation. The rest of the hospitals are partially implemented. First, emergency and consultation-aligned projects, replacement of orthokeratology lenses, etc., and other projects will be carried out one after another.
We expect the company’s return to work rate to accelerate in the future.
(2) The epidemic situation does not change the company’s core growth logic and is optimistic: 1. The demand for ophthalmic medical consumption has been reduced, and the short-term suppressed demand forecast has grown explosively after the epidemic, and the company has continued to continue a steady growth trend; 2. The epidemic has affected public hospitalsInfluencing factors of small and medium-sized private eye hospitals, it is expected that the opening time of ophthalmology in public hospitals is later than Aier, and new and old patients will be more likely to choose Aier without local diagnosis and strict control measures due to the reduction of cross infection.Conducive to the company’s market share increase; 3, Aier spared no effort in fighting the epidemic (highlighted), which is conducive to the further improvement of the company’s brand image. From a financial perspective, it will reduce Aier’s customer acquisition costs, and ultimately changeImproved performance; 4, Aier adheres to the international strategy, the company’s overseas revenue accounts for about 15%, plus the company’s gradual increase in the plan to acquire 30 ophthalmic hospitals, it is expected to remain positive after being partially hedged in the first quarterContributions; 5) Benefit from the government’s phased reduction of corporate social security premiums from February to June and the implementation of the corporate deferred housing provident fund policy.年Pressure to reduce costs.
(3) At present, the focus of the company’s consulting hospitals is still on “scientific protection to ensure the safety of doctors and patients”. For example, Wuhan Aier will uniformly provide nucleic acid testing for emergency surgery patients and open CT green inspection channels; hospitals in all places strictly abide by the precautionary measures.Control measures, implement outpatient appointment system, separate visits.
In addition, during the epidemic prevention and control process, the frequency of non-emergency patients / consumers will still be reduced to medical institutions. Therefore, after the hospital is opened, the overall increase in the number of consultations in the first quarter is gradual, and the company’s performance recovery requires a process.
(4) spare no effort to fight the epidemic, highlighting the role of leading ophthalmic service companies.
In the prevention and control of the pneumonia epidemic, Aier quickly responded from the group to each hospital and then to every employee, went all out, actively assumed social responsibility, took the initiative to carry out anti-epidemic training, and adopted hospital sense prevention and control measures; dispatched medical servicesThe personnel support the front line; donate medical supplies, equipment, donations and other internal anti-epidemic actions.
Earnings forecast and rating: Maintain the Air Force’s performance expectations unchanged. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the mother in 19-21 will be 13 respectively.55, 18.
500 million, corresponding to PE is 99/72/55 times, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder: The growth of hospital performance is less than expected; the opening time of hospitals in various places must be uncertain, and it is expected that the increase in passenger flow after the opening of the consultation requires a process.
[Chemical industry]Long Mang Baili: The reduction of holdings affects short-term suppression, does not change the company’s high-quality attributes, and maintains the “buy” event: due to the company’s director Tan Ruiqing, executives and running capital requirements, it is planned to reduce the bulk of the transaction through centralized bidding transactions.Holding no more than 89,044,034 shares (4 of the company’s total share capital).
%), Today the company can continue to adjust significantly.
(1) Multiple factors have boosted the price of titanium dioxide.
Venator, an international titanium dioxide giant, announced that the price of titanium dioxide in the Asia-Pacific region will increase by 120 US dollars / ton from March 1.
Affected by the tight supply of titanium concentrates at home and abroad, the low cost of inventory has pushed the inventory level lower, and the price of the company’s rutile series products has increased by 500 yuan / ton.
At the same time, the company has 80-inch titanium ore, which has the advantage of titanium dioxide raw materials.
(2) Domestic and foreign downstream demand is steadily improving.
During the epidemic period before the Spring Festival to date, the company’s major bases maintained normal production operations, including the Xiangyang base in Hubei, but the transportation of raw materials and products was short-term blocked for logistics reasons.
As the country’s adversity continues to strengthen, although real estate has expressed pressure every year, investment growth has remained stable.
At the same time, about 100 titanium dioxide exports in 2019.
3, an annual increase of 10.
62%, continued to grow.
(3) The titanium dioxide faucet is overall stable (second in the world), and it has rapidly expanded the sponge titanium business.
The company’s chlorination method Phase II 20 / year production line has been fully commissioned and is undergoing intensive debugging.
At the same time, the newly-established June / year Chlorinated Titanium Dioxide has also resumed production recently, contributing to the main domestic new production capacity in 2020.
The production capacity of Yunnan Xinli 1 sponge titanium has been successfully resumed, and the technical transformation and expansion have been expanded to 4.
5 digits / year, increase 1 by cooperation with Jinchuan Group.
5 / year sponge titanium production capacity, totaling 6 / year.
Earnings forecast and rating: Estimated low, maintain “buy”.
It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 19-21 will be 26.
200 million yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.
03 yuan, PE 13/10/8 times, maintaining “buy”.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic, reduction of suppression.